TURKEY’S ECONOMY and Opportunities
Assessing the effects of Covid-19 outbreak on the global trading and the economy, famous investors think highly of Turkey’s chances after the outbreak. Mark Mobius states that Turkey is a global trade center and they would continue to invest in Turkey. Marc Faber, investment opportunities in emerging markets that also draws attention to Turkey’s found. Jim Rogers says, “Turkey is in my contemplate list.”
ALTHOUGH STEPS are being taken towards normalization throughout the world, especially in European countries, expectations for the global economy are not very positive. Even though the opening of the borders of countries as of May and the fact that planes have taken off for some countries as of June, the growth results of the world’s largest economies for the first quarter signaled that the second half of 2020 will be though.
Economist Nouriel Roubin, thinks that an unprecedented economic recession has started and that we are facing a global depression that will last at least for 10 years. The future recovery will either be “U” or an even worse scenario “L”.
GLOBAL ECONOMIES ARE SHRINKING
Following the 11-year record expansion period, the US economy shrank 4.8 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2020, but the sharp contraction in the economy is expected to be in the second quarter. For the US economy, Bloomberg Economics foresees a recession of 37 percent while Unicredit foresees a decrease of 65 percent.
World’s second largest economy China is also not that different,. China, which has grown above 7.0 percent in the last 30 years, has shrunk by 6.6 percent in the first quarter of 2020 and for the first time in its history announced that they do not forecast growth for this year.
The EU economy, which shrank by 3.8 percent in the first quarter of the year, has a high expectation for a recession in 2020. President of the European Central Bank (ECB) Christine Lagarde, says that production in the Euro Area will likely decrease by 8.0 to 12 percent, and forecasts for a more moderate scenario is no longer on the agenda. Data showing a contraction of 2.2 percent in the first quarter in Germany’ economy and that economists stated that there would be a sharper decrease in the second quarter confirms Lagarde.
TURKEY’S ECONOMY GREW IN THE FIRST QUARTER
While the world’s largest economies contract, Turkey has managed to grow by 4.5 percent in the first quarter. Economist Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin says that , Turkey’s first quarter growth rate is positive, considering that the leading economies seen a negative growth in the first quarter makes Turkey advantageous in 2020 growth performance.
Prof. Dr. Alkin, emphasizes that Turkey has grew 4.5 percent in the first quarter while China contracted 6.83 percent, Japan contracted 7.1 percent, France contracted 5.37 percent, Italy contracted 4.81 percent, Spain contracted 4.1 percent, Eurozone contracted 3.3 percent and Mexico contracted 1.92.
TURKEY’S PERFORMANCE ALSO DREW ATTENTION OF FOREIGN ECONOMISTS
World famous investment guru Mark Mobius evaluated the impact of the Covid-19 on global economy and Turkey and said, “Turkey is a global trading country. After this process, recovery will begin. ” Mobius thinks that the worst part of the spread of the epidemic has been overcame and made the following assessment: “Turkey will also begin to recover thereafter.
Turkey is a worldwide trading center, the world is doing business with anywhere, it is important not to forget the economy. Yes, there are problems with balance of payments and Turkish Lira, but these can be dealt with. Turkish people are very hard working. I believe that thanks to the right approach of investors and the public, these problems will be overcame and the country will recover.”
Turkey trades with all over the globe and is a global trade center. In this respect, Turkey’s economy will recover faster. MARK MOBIUS
“MAY BE ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT SUPPLIERS OF EUROPE”
Emphasizing that the depreciation in lira can be turned into an opportunity for export, Mark Mobius said, “Turkish lira is very cheap against the dollar and other currencies. Thus, TURKEY’S ECONOMY could increase its exports to Europe and other countries. On the other hand, production started to shift from China to other countries. Turkey is one of those countries. Some companies experience supply difficulties caused by customs duties in China and rising costs in the country. Turkey can be a part of the solution at this point. On the other hand, with the epidemic, a market especially for medical equipment occurred. Turkey can replace China in this market.”
JIM ROGERS: TURKEY IS IN MY CONTEMPLATE LIST
American investor Jim Rogers, who is known as an investment guru in international markets, said in his evaluation to Bloomberg HT; said everything will be all right in a year in Turkey and added, “There are serious problems in countries such as Venezuela and Argentina, but Turkey is in my contemplate list.” Rogers previously evaluated US sanctions on Turkey as in ‘madness’ and said, “Smart people are buying currently the Turkish assets. If I were to invest in Turkey I would buy assets.”
Production started to shift from China to other countries. Turkey is one of those countries. It can substitute China in the medical equipment market. JIM ROGERS
MARC FABER: THERE ARE INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN TURKEY FOR INVESTORS
Investor Marc Faber, also known as Dr. Doom, also said that the dollar will lose its power over the long term because of US monetary policy, and said that there are investment opportunities in emerging markets. Faber said that the future of emerging markets, including TURKEY’S ECONOMY, which at low levels can rise again quickly in the coming periods and added, “There were more sales than necessary since March in the markets. There is an opportunity for investors to win in the developing markets for the next 2-3 months. This includes Turkey.”
I think that the emerging markets, that includes Turkey, can rise quickly. MARC FABER
Turkey’s Economy Links
- Invest in Turkey – September 2020 Newsletter – invest.gov.tr
- Turkey Economy: Population, GDP, Inflation, Business
- Turkey’s Economy Overview – World Bank Group
Turkey’s Economy Videos
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