Unlocking India’s Export Potential: #TalkingTrade with Aradhna Aggarwal | Live Session

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Since the opening of the call Since the opening of the economic through liberalisation globally. lization. After the lization. After the 1991 crisis lization. After the 1991 crisis, the composition, volume the composition, volume, and. Bye the composition, volume, and value of india’s foreign shape has undergone substance has undergone substantial changes.

To understand these. ructure structural changes and structural changes, and its implications for the Indian economy. the Indian economy. Indian economy. We have gathered for talk under the CD for talk under the series. The state of foreign trade has state of foreign trade hashtag talking treat. with Professor or not okay

With Professor or not or goodbye. ne on growth ne on growth diversification ne on growth diversification and upgrading of India’s Expo upgrading of India’s Experts in post upgrading of India’s Experts in post reforms period. This celebration is being This celebration is being organized by the employee center

Organized by the employee center organized by the employee, Center for the Study of Finance and economics. I feel honored to it feel honored to introduce the chair. prefer professor Michael Usher professor local farmer perfect professor local farmer perfect. So, Lee Kuan Yew school have So, Lee Kuan Yew school of

Public Policy. ic Policy now ic Policy national university of Singapore, but themselves. Welcome, so I feel privileged to me feel privileged to introduce the speaker. prefer professor or not, or goodbye professor or not, or goodbye professor or not, or goodbye. Mom is a professor in Mom is a professor indeed

Business studies as Copa. openhagen school business school business School Denmark. appear ndeed business studies as Copenhagen School Business School Denmark, a PhD from the School of Economics. she has She has a long experience in us She has a long experience in university teaching and research. ch, including the university

Ch, including the university of Delhi, and some of the premier poly poly Delhi, and some of the premier policy think Tank so in India, in policy think Tank so in India, including it G and C. care. international agencies like international agencies, like, a dB un dp World

DB un dp World Bank, you dB un dp World Bank, you an escape really dope, and. Angela ad she has ad she has so as well ad she has so as visiting fellow at the IMF and co go at the IMF and Korean institute economic policy. international and Nash l newspapers and

L newspapers and books in it l newspapers and books. In addition to her monographs on it addition to her monographs on anti dumping and special and special economic zones special economic zones. She has presented her research She has presented her research in several countries across the world. Welcome Welcome.

We are fortunate to have proof are fortunate to have professors sharp. im in as the nd as the discussion for the session session as the discussion for the session. So, it’s a professor So, it’s a professor, Department of it’s a professor, Department of Economics. zombie zombie Amelia islamiah

Delhi, the console. so we have with us, Dr we have with us, Dr. Colleen party as the motor data. data. So isn’t associated. rofessor rofessor humanity rofessor humanities and social sciences in there sciences, Indian institute of technology, but not work, welcome. so. so now I invite Dr

Now I invite Dr party to take the now I invite Dr party to take the proceedings further, and we look forward to learning from our esteem Catherine. Thank you. Yeah, thank you very much. Yeah, thank you very much. of all I’d like to welcome. Professor Professor Ragnar Groupon for Professor Ragnar Groupon for

Ragnar Gabon for joining this web talk. This is very important moment for is very important moment for all of us. when when the when the trade minister of Youth when the trade minister of the UK is coming india. a for discussing a for discussing this for discussing discussing.

G FDA current rate CAGR FDA foreign trade agreement. FDA foreign trade agreement. t, and enjoy , and India assigned many for and India assigned many foreign trade. free trade Free Trade Agreement. Sorry. for the foreign trade agreement. t. It’s free trade agreement t. It’s free trade agreement and india had signed company

India had signed a comprehensive economic. partner Partnership agreement all Partnership agreement also safer with many countries. So. some some of our research some of our researchers color has done. done their study on Say bye study on paper, and also nephew. and. some of the results are in encouraging for us, because the

FDA. A, and the violet A, and the bilateral trade in India and Japan. Japan Japan, and bilateral trade Japan, and bilateral trade in other Japan, and bilateral trade in other FDA souls that there is improvement. in information technology. trade trade and also and also there are improvement

And also there are improvement in terms of services. While in case in terms of services. While in case of manufacturing. India has has to Travel a lot. since Since professor Michael Asana Since professor Michael Assad has also joined. Just now, so I would also like

Just now, so I would also like Just now, so I would also like to invite Professor to invite Professor assigned. ed to give ed to give a open ed to give a overview and his ed to give a overview and his, his own inaugural remark for this web top professionals

This laptop. Professor sir. r sir sir. Thank you, my apology Thank you. My apologies for being late, some technical issues. with my my computer. that needs Let me start by thanking. g him very good Emery director. or. or. Professor Merlin. for inviting me. this webinar. By webinar, by Professor.

R, or a good one or a good one. This is a very. This is a very timely topic. I am always I am always amazed at how am always amazed at how improve. n pre Keeps n pre Keeps n pre Keeps on coming time pre Keeps on coming time after time.

With very relevant with very relevant, and I with very relevant and high quality. ty seminars at ty seminars at frequent into seminars at frequent intervals. I’m going to make my. I’m going to make my remarks. in touch In terms of for. points In terms of four points. First, when

First, when we analyze First, when we analyze. International. in assessing a country in assessing a contribution of a country. blow globally in Not me Not me give you some. some some triggers. 2021. Exports our project. One, so the top. Now let me put that in compare let me put that in comparison.

A day They are these India They are these Indian speaker’s. They are these Indian speaker’s 4.6 times 4.6 times that 4.6 times that of Indonesia 4.6 times that of Indonesia. I’m just going to total exports. I’m just going to total exports. 1.8. times times that of weird 1.8 times that of Vietnam.

1.8 times that of Vietnam. All these three countries. s are there s are the perception is that are the perception is that they are somehow. , much more international much more internationally. open Open integrate. e an india Yes, but that e an india Yes, but that is not real

An india Yes, but that is not really the case. once Once you look at the apps you look at the absolute size. The next. The in terms next. The in terms of my Sample. , South Korea, that , South Korea, at 738 South Korea, at 738. billion. So india

Billion. So india is in. within within striking distance within striking distance, if it striking distance, if it grows faster. of South Korea. a to Germany, you a to Germany, USA, China to Germany, USA, China. , way about india , way about india and way about india and. nd it was take considered

Narrow narrow the gap between the gap between them. This is just experts. to take it to take inputs, which will take inputs, which will be. This is 630 to eight This is 632 inputs will be. about six at. t six at together, so t six at together, so we are

Talking about 1300 billion and talking about 1300 billion, and India is going to approach to. brilliant trillion in few years trillion in few years to trail in few years, 2 trillion is. very significant. in global. country contribution to contribution to imply me contribution to employment to track contribution to employment to

Contribution to employment to track to international trade. on. So, this on. So, this whole process. ption that ption that India is not ption that India is not open that India is not open is something. that needs to be rethought that needs to be rethought. that can indeed India is the night.

Ninth largest x ninth largest exporter. er of agricultural er of agricultural commodities of agricultural commodities. as reliable as reliable and trustworthy part reliable and trustworthy part reliable and trustworthy than him and trustworthy part, then important. reliable and trustworthy part. An important part of globe important part of global integration.

That India is doing that India is doing income that India is doing in terms of food security. India has shifted India has shifted its economic India has shifted its economic agreement says, I caught, cut agreement says, I caught the last part of. prefer professor party professor party squatting party. What was the.

What was the gist of it was. that its economic that it’s economical agreement. ratch to work. wards those to improve wards those who can provide more wards those who can provide more balanced treatment balanced treatment of balanced treatment of good service balanced treatment of goods, towards those who can provide

More balanced treatment of good services investments and. flow of proof flow of proof flow of professional and flow of professional and technical personnel. also Also, those countries. Also, those countries. which which have got Critical and which have got Critical energy and other resources that and other resources that india. needs

Needs. So, india needs. So, india is about to continue So, india is about to conclude a. beacon economic agreement with you agreement with up. it has It has close relations with some has close relations with saudi Arabia. Indeed. d, india was the d, india was the largest exporter of.

Agriculture product to sell agriculture product to saudi Arabia. a. In the second of a. In the second of 2020 In the second of 2021. places replacing the joke is replacing the joke is also negotiating with you. a rush A Russia. Australia Australia, Brazil, Japan Australia, Brazil, Japan. n, so on for

N, so on for national so on for national security. and economic diplomacy and economic diplomacy, which one. sort of what of. together together, and now being together, and now being and now being thought of. together together and And one example. is quiet. quiet India, Japan or India, Japan, Australia. and the UK

And the United States and and the United States and the different arrangements. that is making that is making, so. India India is now looking India is now looking for the India is now looking for the first time. since independence. ce to an extra ce to an external sec

Ce to an external sector as ce to an external sector as a critical engine of. with India never with India never did. And that Augurs quite And that Augurs quite well along that Augurs quite well, along with all the. other other initiatives other initiatives other initiatives. So, in initiatives. So, india’s

External. l sector now so l sector now so l sector now has to be looked at in l sector now has to be looked at in a very different life, then in a very different life, then what is pretty traditional , what has traditionally traditionally been the case. Thank you very much. Thank.

And now I think we should wish now I think we should we should. invite invite professor or not invite professor or not negotiable for our lecture and negotiable for our lecture. And after that. we’ll all we’ll also in we’ll also invite professor side and not for each his point

Side and not for each his point. Now I invite Professor agree Now I invite Professor Available for production and then. we’ll we’ll take up some of the also. Thank you. Hello, good morning everyone. First of all I would like to thank Embree director. professor Professor adjunct Kumar. w, for inviting me too

For inviting me to this talk. It’s really a pleasure. re to present re to present my find to present my findings. with this gathering. And I hope that I will. myself learned a lot and I am myself learned a lot and I must thank Professor. Malaysia Malaysia, for very interesting points, in fact.

One of the one of these points at least. I have started I will be there will be taking up with my. my presentation. my presentation. The present the space present this paper actually has. a very a very a very focused view of a very focused view of x

Very focused view of exports, where. I am basically folk I am, basically, focusing on the I am, basically, focusing on the I am, basically, focusing on the kind of. exposure export push the guy export push the kind of export focus ort push the kind of export

Focus that India should adopt at focus that India should adopt at focus that India should adopt at this time. I’m not much talking about the I’m not much talking about the, the free trade agreements, because I the free trade agreements, because I think that for. free trade agreements. will succeed

Will succeed. The country is will succeed. The country is must be succeed. The country is must have. company competitive less of its exposure competitive less of its exports bit less of its exports. less of its exports. Because Because Because, because these fPS or not because these fPS are not

Always. a sort of a sort of a sort of, you know sort of, you know. positive positive positive gains for everyone positive positive gains for everyone. There are losers as well. So one must understand well. So one must understand these things before because there is a lot of push on

There is a lot of push on our setup and many other. r FPS but i think that FPS but i think that it is very important to have. very important to have one’s own competitiveness, to really suck competitiveness, to really succeed in these in these. agreement agreement agreements. So my focus is

Agreements. So my focus is on what should be the focus of. of india’s Exports and india’s Exports and I have. a sort of a sort of it a sort of, I started the motivation of this study. yo, how did I get them yo, how did I get the motivation

For this study, in fact for this study. In fact, when I for this study. In fact, when I was in Denmark two years ago. before before corporate at before it actually i found that. there there was a new debate that stuff there was a new debate that

Started in India and there was a lot of push. sh to focus on live to focus on labor intensive. e low skilled Exports low skilled Exports and manufacturing. there There were some in the There were some in the public corridors of India many people were actually pushing they were saying that india should.

Should actually try it should actually try to push, try should actually try to push, try should actually try to push. labor and. nd because India nd because India she has or not nd because India she has are not growing in those sectors way growing in those sectors where there is competitive.

At one advantage. India advantage. India is losing it is India is losing it is export. the company, and it is the company, and it is growth them the company, and it is growth company. And I also found that there was And I also found that there was a comparison with bangladesh, it

A comparison with bangladesh, it was shown that how. Bangladesh Bangladesh has been progressing or Bangladesh has been progressing are growing much faster, which is the effect. Then India and current years Then India and current years, Then India and current years, and the Then India and current years.

And the reason that was given was that. Bangla Bangladesh he has focused on he sector where it has sector where it has competitive advantage. with this. India has with this. India has not so with this. India has not. So, these are the kinds of trees So, these are the kinds of

Triggers, in my mind, which LED triggers, in my mind, which LED triggers, in my mind, which LED to this, this study that. I can conducted. curate theoretically it is found that theoretically it is found that in now it is found that in an open economy. export The exports actually grow in

Those sectors where the country has competitive advantage. e. So, which means that post e. So, which means that post reform period comparative advantages. This is what actually. the pure the theoretically, this is what the theoretically, this is what the theory is about the mainstream fury mainstream fury.

But then it is found in India. that export shares are that export shares are growing in those sectors where they were the country doesn’t have come were the country doesn’t have competitive advantage. e. So, I am just e. So I’m just trying to look at this

E. So, I’m just trying to look at this paradox, and try to see at this paradox, and try to see how India’s exports have grown how India’s exports have grown in the post 99. 99 period. So this is 99 period. So this is what actually I’m trying to do and

Actually I’m trying to do and try actually I’m trying to do and try to draw some policy conclusions. , how India can actually , how India can actually add at this how India can actually add at how India can actually add at this moment how india. the

Really move forward. d. So these are, this is the d. So these are, this is the kind of objective that I’m that kind of objective that I’m that t that I have this in this paper paper but of course i will put some. reflections on. Sunday our side because I have written

About our second F about our second FPS, and I about our second FPS, and I have certain views on. the was on them as well. So. now my I display now my I display now my I this paper actually this now my I this paper actually this study, actually.

This study, actually. y has addressed five questions y has addressed five questions se are, how has india’s group se are, how has india’s growth performance been through. this. limit liberal economic regime of liberal economic regime of the post 9091 period, how post 9091 period. How has the distribution of

Has the distribution of exports. change changed, have the have the diversified. ed, are they are specialized ied, are they are specialized over time. Has the, how is the company Has the, how is the composition of exports have changed, or Are we really moving. in the in the sector’s fast

In the sector’s foster we are we have reveal competitive advantage. advantage. ge, or we are moving away ge, or we are moving away from sub sectors as has sub sectors as has been said. d, What is the way forward for d, What is the way forward for India, why we have this

India, why we have this India, why we have this kind of pattern. that we have at the mall that we have at the moment. So these are some of the. posts questions that I will be questions that I will be answering in this presentation. So let me start with the growth.

Kind of. But before that, I would like to But before that, I would like to talk about the theory. I meant talk about the theory. I am an academy session. So I would like to. look at look at the theory and I will try look at the theory and I will

Try to show how. w the kind of curious the kind of curious. are different , different theories are relevant , different theories are relevant to explain, India’s experts relevant to explain, India’s orts in this current scenario in this current scenario. So if we look. So if we look at these. purely

Theories bizarre do classical bizarre do classical theory new classic. sical theory says that sical theory says that exports are determined by a factor endowment. If you are labor at Brendan, then you should. focus focus on us focus on you you export you have competitive advantages in labor competitive advantages in labor

Intensive products. If you products. If you are capital products. If you are capital products. If you are capital abundant than your competitive advantage is not in capital goods or advantage is not in capital goods or skill intensive. then there are endogenous go to. ories ories that focus on now

That focus on knowledge, skill up. grading, and this happens grading, and this happens in an open grading, and this happens in an open economy, do FBI and trade because they are accompanied with technology. trends transfer There are spillovers that lead There are spillovers that lead to increasing knowledge and

Increasing, increasing scale increasing, increasing skills within the economy. leading to leading to diversification of. exposure exports and upgrading of and upgrading of experts. then Then there is a JIRA do Then there is a DVD literature which focuses again on the in which focuses again on the in which focuses again on the

Insertion into global value chains. s, and I think, and s, and I think, and this is what I’ve been writing that global well I’ve been writing that global value chains is a single most important factor driving growth. h and exports and h and exports and FDA in

H and exports and FDA, in this contemporary world. And then we have And then we have melted story. is. ik’s theory is not really looking at the overall growth. macro macro level. Fact macro level factors. There are looking at micro. level level factors that is for me level factors that is formed

Level heterogeneity. So some forms, the So some farms, they acquire. knowledge knowledge, capable knowledge capabilities, and then knowledge capabilities, and they enjoyed higher productivity and these are the forms. that dr. Experts, so that dr. Experts. So this, these are the theories which are actually currently. are actually currently. there there, explaining export

There, explaining exports and I would like to see India’s exports exports would like to see India’s experts within the framework of these. things theories. So all these theories. So all these theories suggest that exports grow. in an open economy. y. So, the effect of n economy. So, the effect of

Openness is always positive on openness is always positive on export growth rate. So, different reasons are given I’m not getting into those reasons at the moment, because reasons at the moment, because I have many other. What is my time. How much time do I have. How much time do I have.

How much time do I have. Hello. minutes minutes. 20 minutes. Okay minutes. 20 minutes. Okay minutes. 20 minutes. Okay, maybe half an hour. Okay, so, so yeah. h, so, but all h, so, but all these theories suggest h, so, but all these theories suggest that if there is exports for different reasons.

Neal neoclassical theories that there is specialization, that there is specialization, you s that there is specialization, you specialize in those products where you have competitive advantage. Whereas other theories are other theories are not so. positive about. space specialization, they say specialization, they say that there is a possibility of diversification.

So when So whether it is endogenous growth So whether it is endogenous growth theory because it says that foreign direct investment comes and that leads to. to create both of them create both of them. them improve the economic improve the economic. The knowledge stock in the economy

The knowledge stock in the The knowledge stock in the economy and that leads to diversification of exports VCs. tc so is the same thing. Malik tc so is the same thing. tc so is the same thing. Military also say is that if there is open as then the productivity constraint. constraints come down

Come down. a result of this more and more. forms firms are able to access firms are able to export in the firms are able to export in the world market, and therefore, there is a possibility of diversification, so upgrading. is concerned. our thoughts towards export our thoughts towards export that

That actually is very static in. there nature and it says that it nature and it says that, it all depends upon where you have competitive with. ntage if you have continued continue ntage if you have continued, continuing comparative advantage in labor then you continue to produce. labor intensive products.

But other theories are But other theories are more dynamic, and they see that there is a possibility of. of upgrading do too of upgrading do to knowledge and upgrading do to knowledge and malice theory. says that says that, as you that, as you open up. there there then more and more forms

Then more and more farms they then more and more farms they get exposed. ed to G VCs, they go ed to G VCs, they get exposed to trade and therefore they upgrade trade and therefore they upgrade their productivity and their productivity, and therefore there is a

Ere is a possibility of upgrading, so is a possibility of upgrading, so. o neoclassical theory, which o neoclassical theory, which is the mainstream theory that is very static in nature, it says very static in nature, it says that there is specialization but because resources are. trans transferred to to specialize

Sector there is broken. export exports, whereas other exports, whereas other exports, whereas other theories are talking about diversification of are talking about diversification of exports and and they also say that there is a possibility of experts. So within this framework. rk. I would like to see

Rk. I would like to see how india rk. I would like to see how india’s exports have moved. it shows that until 19 it shows that until 1999 it shows that until 1990. Now if you look at this carefully if 99. 9090 World Expo 9090 World Exports, work on it

9090 World Exports, work on an average, greater than, in the US. export ports The growth. This is a growth The growth. This is a growth rate and 1% is changing the rate and 1% is changing the growth. Not nine. 2002 2000. 2010, there was 2010. There was acceleration in

The growth rate. If you see the distance has you see the distance has increased. between between 200 and between 202,000 2010 202,000 2010 so. without 0, but 0, but after 2000 but after 2010. we are we are we again started slipping we again started slipping and we again started slipping. And

We find that the, that India’s growth rate or growth rate or. actually actually becoming lower actually becoming lower than or actually becoming lower than, are they, they are entangled LED with the world export with the world export growth rate so there is there’s a desk so there is there’s a

Deceleration there, that we see So this is the kind of thing. which one which, what does that mean that which, what does that mean that is what I would like to explain that is what I would like to explain that, despite. We could not really. sucks sustain this excellent

Sustain this exploration, that’s what actually I wanted to see what actually I wanted to see, really really establish our side really establish our side really establish ourselves as an really establish ourselves as an export economy. Now here export economy. Now here and I would like to bring the point

That professor, he just that professor, he just made up. about the first point the first point that he made about the device he made about the, the value of made about the, the volume, and I here. nt that Professor, he just made about the first point that he

Made about the, the value, and I hear i find that yes he is absolutely right that we are 14 , in terms of our share , in terms of our sharing global experts that is in experts that is in terms of the value that is what

The value that is what he was talking about. There are only few countries that There are only few countries that are only few countries, developing countries. which are which are about India are about India. Most of them are essentially developed countries. Okay. y, so here we have I

Y, so here we have, I actually tried to find out which other color tried to find out which other countries which have more exports then india, and these are exports then india, and these are China. and these and these are developing and these are developing countries I’m talking about.

So China Mexico. Singapore, Hong Kong Singapore, Hong Kong, Korea Singapore, Hong Kong. and there is there is there and there is, there is very marginal increase in India’s. dia’s dia’s Exports over there Exports over the years. Whereas, if you look at Whereas, if you look at China, China started.

D almost where India was d almost where India was the gap was almost where India was the gap was very, very small. l. But over the years China but over the years, China, actually. gained some stuff gained substantially. and more than 13. ook at China, China started

Almost where India was, I mean, the gap was very, very small. But over the years China actually gained substantial lead and more than 13% of words here is accounted for by china. alone alone So, if you just look at India So, if you just look at India

And China the gap actually has. grown like an. like an. thing thing, even if thing, even if there is there thing, even if there is there is effect on all other countries. with with what with with what exporting more than which we’re exporting more than India.

Now I come to the point where Now I come to the point where which professor he said is not very very which professor he said is not very relevant, and it is about the share of India’s exports to the share of India’s exports to to to GDP. If we

If we look at that share If we look at that share because india is a large economy. , and Korea and although , and Korea and all those economies Taiwan, they are very economies Taiwan, they are very small small economies, so it is. small economies, so it is. it is of course.

, here I beg to differ that , here I beg to differ, that it is important to see how much is important to see how much is the ratio of exports to GDP. P. And here we find that in P. And here we find that india is really in the bottom two. disciples.

There was a There was an acceleration. And if you look at india as well if you look at india as ranking improved. We were one of the most We were one of the most fast were one of the most fastest were one of the most fastest growing. export

Export economy in export economy. In fact, we were only only behind, China, I mean only behind, China, A major economy, which which which is the. other countries were very small. So that was the kind of growth. , but then we see , but then we slipped and many other countries, started

Other countries, started growing faster. After 2010 growing faster. After 2010. So we growing faster. After 2010. So we lost our. right So the so the So the so the So, So those hair the hair before So, So, those hair here we find that that

So, those hair here we find that that even. sorry sorry. so even if we so even if we were growing for you so even if we were growing for, even if we had a growth spurt. and be And we were going faster. we could We could not really me

We could not really maintain that, and this is very important and that, and this is very important to sustain. you know n economic the Expo n economic the Export growth rate of n economic the Export growth rate over the years to really, in rate over the years to really

Increase our show. Now when we come to. o the specialization of o the specialization of o the specialization of this, I feel the specialization of this, I focus on. three three parameters here three parameters here three indicators. , the distribution of exposure , the distribution of exposures

The variety of exports and distinct the variety of exports and distribution of its RCS, so. RCS. So, let us see how the PR So, let us see how we performed in terms of diversified in terms of diversification now in terms of diversification. Now when I look at this, distribute

Now when I look at this distribution. I use this. The scope I Lawrenceburg, which. many of us are familiar with in terms of diversification. Now when I look at this when I look at this distribution. I use this disco by a Lawrenceburg, which many of us are familiar with.

And this curve shows that And this curve shows that india, And this curve shows that india, actually. in this case n this correctly is based on n this correctly is based on the six digit level. They were accounting for nearly. 90% of 90% of today’s export 90% of trade exports in 19.

In 1990 over the years in 1990. Over the years, there was in in 1990. Over the years, there was employees in the share of other was employees in the share of other the other. products as well. But this But this increase actually But this increase actually then

Here is a change in the lawrence curve here you find. , but this change but this change only happened in the middle happened in the middle range that happened in the middle range. That is the product that is the products which were. early earlier margins earlier marginal, they were ready

Earlier marginal, they were very close to those 10 groups. Those 10% first. e 10% of commodities, or e 10% of commodities only beer there e 10% of commodities only beer, there was a shift in the. products. Top 10 products. Top 10% products that bit products. Top 10% products that

Decline from 90% to a decline from 90% to 83%. So there was this. difference difference, and this happened only difference, and this happened only in the middle of the section only in the middle of the only in the middle of the section, the rest of the commodities are not affected.

So you need coefficient. also declined. But this decline was more But this decline was marginal. So what we find that. So what we find that. India India’s Exports are still India’s Exports are still can’t India’s Exports are still concentrated at the top there was concentrated at the top, there

Was a change, but this change was not. t towards specialization realization towards specialization. This was diversification This was diversification. And this This was diversification. And this diversification happen. Even if it is Even if it is marginally Even if it is marginally Even if it is marginally, it is it

If it is marginally, it is it is very small. , but this is something because many , but this is something because many countries tend to specialize. in there in there is in their export basket. Now what is very important to note here re is that India still diversify

Re is that India still diversify re is that India still diversified even if the rate of time diversified even if the rate of diversification is not very high. . Now let me just focus on . Now let me just focus on this diversification aspect further bye diversification aspect further

By Looking at how it happened or why by Looking at how it happened or why didn’t happen. , what exactly was , what exactly was the mechanism , what exactly was the mechanism and what exactly was the mechanism. And so I try to be And so I try to be compose

And so I try to be composed of an export growth rate and. nd decompose means we look at nd decompose means we look at the contribution of the existing products to export growth growth existing products to export growth and the company, the growth and the company, the contribution of new

Contribution of new products and. d the old products that exists d the old products that exited from d the old products that exited from the Export basket, so. So, he is the call So, a is the contribution by existing So, a is the contribution by existing products p minus C is

Existing products p minus C is the contribution of. f the dynamics Expo f the dynamics Export Dynamics that the dynamics Export Dynamics that is a net entry. that is a net entry. ry of products, and here ry of products, and here we find that the look at the first call.

N here n here, the sec I’m in the second n here, the sec I’m in the second column here, which shows second column here, which shows that most of this. group this growth in this growth in export scheme from this growth in export scheme from the within products that is the

From the within products that is the existing products to existing is the existing products to existing products the growth and existing products the growth and exports. ts of existing product ts of existing products, only country of existing products, only contributed to. o the growth of export

O the growth of exports the growth of exports. In the beginning we had a lot In the beginning we had a large share of. of these export these export Dynamics as well, but these export Dynamics as well, but over the years we find that they are not really sustainable

Remain very, very small. ll. Now here it is also in ll. Now here it is also important to see that the number of products continue to. increase here. The number of new products, and on The number of new products, until 2005, it was. only after that for two

Only after that for two years, the number of new products. because declined, and then declined. And then again, the in declined. And then again the e increased. So even if there was an increase in the number of. broad products, which were in which were included on it. basket. of these products didn’t

Of these products did not really ot really increase much. This is important to understand important to understand most. of the of the growth came from those of the growth came from those products, which were already there in the Export button there in the Export basket. So most of these. xport

Xport is driven by Intel is driven by Intensive Margin. n, and why this is so this is n, and why this is so this is also important to understand by 1988, India 1988. India’s export portfolio 1988. India’s export portfolio already come. prised of three prised of 3700 and say

Prised of 3771 product prised of 3771 products out of five of 3771 products out of 5000. products products in the in in the, in this class. fication fication, which is fication, which is 73 points which is 73.44%. which is 73.44%. Now this could be attributed to the

This could be attributed to the promotion of. f manufacturing capabilities during during f manufacturing capabilities during the project protected receive. Now when we. opened open the economy, there open the economy. Then there was a fear that now, India a fear that now India’s exports will

A fear that now India’s exports will become. competitiveness was driven by. y the protective y the protective already, but the protective already, but this didn’t happen. didn’t happen. en. As we opened up the en. As we opened up the number of products started expanding. ng in India’s basket in

Ng in India’s basket in nine 2009 in India’s basket in nine 2019 India’s. export But what is in But what is important that. t, despite this in three t, despite this increase their contribution remain small this contribution remain small. This is something. that we need to add

That we need to explain and that we need to explain and see will how it happened and what what we can do to really change this we can do to really change this guy do to really change this kind of scenario. Now let’s come to the reveal competitive advantage now.

Ow in economics, this ow in economics, this is what we do in economics, this is what we use for our. r to see to measure r to see to measure how much is the r to see to measure how much is the comparative advantage in different categories.

So here what We find is So here what We find is, we look So here what We find is, we looked at the number of products. with RC greater than or with RC greater than or one, And then we also look at the Expo And then we also look at the

Exports under RC now Exports under RC. Now if we look at the products are there are look at the products are RCA wi Fi. find that there is a content find that there is a continuous inquiry, but of product inquiry, but of products under RC greater than or equal to one.

That That is weird. We have revealed That is weird. We have revealed is weird we have reveal competitive advantage. But if we look at the. if you if you look at the the if you look at the, the percentage of x. xports under RC product xports under RC products that

Has the under RC products that has declined. And this is what perhaps And this is what perhaps is, is. taken taken seriously and taken seriously and it is shown that how India is not ready that how India is not really export that how India is not really exporting the products were

Exporting the products were india has comparative advantage, so india has comparative advantage. So I think this is where the So I think this is where we we we So I think this is where we find that there is a sort of inconsistency in. export export shares and reviews export chairs and reveal

Explain that in my. in my in my prayers in my presentation today. We looked at the district We looked at the distribution of We looked at the distribution of x We looked at the distribution of exports by the value of RC exports by the value of RCA in dices. and he

And here we find that And here we find that there were And here we find that there were a number of products, which had our a number of products, which had RCA greater than or equal to you RCA greater than or equal to even 10 in 1998 even 10 in 1990.

Started declining. g. So first two categories g. So first two categories, if you look at where we had very high ourselves. there There be fine. There be fine. It is a decline in the show It is a decline in the large share of products under this as share of products under this,

As well as the RC, so. ealed comparative advantage ealed comparative advantage beer ealed comparative advantage, beer, we had very highly competitive. e advantage there be advantage there. These reveal competitive advantages started declining. ng mode, RCA ng mode, RCA all ng mode, RCA also declined sharp ng mode, RCA also declined

Sharply. Over the years on the sharply. Over the years, on the other hand. d, in other chaotic most of d, in other chaotic most of these products, shifted to this category of three to six category of three to 6.5. .5, or 123, so 5 or 123. So be the this is there.

Re most of these products so there re most of these products so there was declined, and they there was declined, and they remained. Of course they remained. the prod the products which are greater than or equal to one. , but there are seeing value

, but there are see values that declined. So this is declined. So this is where be fine. that RCA that RCA. that RCA. The the The the sheer of exports The the sheer of exports. Under the sheer of exports. Under RCA. that has declined, this that has declined. This is

Because of the decline in the art because of the decline in the RC values it. tself, even though they read tself, even though they remained tself, even though they remained above RC, the number above RC, the number of products, about, please products, about, please. That, that I’m showing here now.

I’m showing here now, it is this. is. It is this which shows that is. It is this which shows that how the distribution of ours how the distribution of RCS itself. self as has changed over the years has changed over the years, it has become morning has become more important. The

Most has become more important, the most value of our see the. this threshold level of this threshold level of RC. A has more A has moved towards s moved towards the left s moved towards the left, so more and more products, they came more and more products, they came into RC category

Into RC category, but over into RC category, but overall. , RCA values had , RCA values had come down for those , RCA values had come down for those products we are we had very high or see values look at this last one here this last one. Here we had very

Sharp. rise, you know, awesome rise, you know, for 10%. product but now but now it has become more but now it has become more deeply, so now it has become more deeply. So that is where we find that So that is where we find that the Exposure so it is not the

Structural change and export pursue. rcy. It is the change in the rcy. It is the change in the distribution of revealed distribution of revealed comparative advantages itself, which which LED to this change in the air. Export Chairs and e export chairs, and each one export chairs and eat to

Understand how are will reveal competitive but why will reveal competitive advantages are changing it advantages are changing. I think this is the point that we I think this is the point that we are not really looking at, we are just look. ng at at the Expo Cheers. So what we did was that.

So what we did was that we began with this up we began with this upgrading pain, we began with this upgrading pain, we began with this. is, then finding these us what. exactly exactly is happening with exactly is happening whether we are upgrading or we are not completely.

So what I did was I So what I did was I took. I took So what I did was I took. I took this classification at. t six level t six level, and then to build t six level, and then to build t six level, and then to the shares of.

Took this classification at at a six level, and then took the shares of 21 sections in that. that this that this table law that this table law. This is where where that this table law. This is where we find that. t how the export

T how the export she was an RC how the export she was an RC is have changed. So what We find. Look what We find. Look at the first period. d. And here we find that text And here we find that textile natural. and culture and culture, pause, which

And culture, pause, which table products mineral in Kemet products mineral and chemicals products mineral and chemicals and allied services. they They were the top 10 products, top They were the top 10 top five uting. This is the section uting. This is the section wise, this is a section wise classic

This is a section wise classification. They were contributing 71 point 40% off contributing 71 point 40% of total trade total trade. And then next wife, they work on then next wife, they were contributing 21. and over and over all the contribution was 92.3%. Now, this was the. this

This was the kind of thing this was the kind of thing this was the kind of thing in 98 now this was the kind of thing in 98. Now look at the recent. class classification and classification. And here we find how how classification. And here we find

How our seas and exposures both how our seas and exposures both have changed, but RC is have have changed, but RC is have changed Foster. So what we find that now. machine if you look at here. this this in the in the next in on the six

The next in on the sixth place now. because it has moved to the top five now it has moved to the top five now on has moved to the top five now. On the other hand, busy the other hand, business come down. wn in the, in the next five

Wn in the, in the next five products, and this RC has also. come down. So if you do come down. So if you don’t come down. So if you don’t plastics. And they have entered as new And they have entered as new categories, they will not be earlier. well

Whereas here we Wi Fi whereas here we We find that some of whereas here we We find that some of the products here like animal products. Ross Raw skins, that is where Raw skins, that is where we had competitive advantage. They have gone out of They have gone out of this

Classification. So what classification. So what we find that it is not merely the export. e that Here it is also the RCMP Here it is also the RCA values that have changing an RC will es and be changing a little faster and be changing a little faster.

Let us look at the other philosophy Let us look at the other classifications, which are, the more classifications, which are, the more more. e normal known, and when e normal known and read which are typically use. So we actually are typically use. So we actually looked at.

The classification of the classification of exports. labor intensive products labor intensive products. Now here again you find that. there there is a sharp decline there is a sharp decline in the there is a sharp decline in the show there is a sharp decline in the share of export years of

Share of export years of unsafe share of export years of unsafe share of export years of unskilled labor intensive products, on the other hand. there there is increasing the there is increasing the labor human labor intensive process human labor intensive products now now human labor intensive products.

Now if you look at the next graph this is about RCA we graph this is about RCA, we find that are similar. trends Trends here and there is a sharp Trends here and there is a sharp decline in the arsenio. nio unskilled labor intensive nio unskilled labor intensive he RCA of human labor

He RCA of human labor intensive he RCA of human labor intensive products, it means that we are in products, it means that we are in transition. That is what is important to understand now similar understand now similar graph me find understand now similar graph we

Find here where we find that we are find here where we find that we are we have classified. are we have classified. these products according to. their their technology, so technology. because this is where we have. ve huge advantage you to define ve huge advantage you to define

The reason and purse and the reason and purse and Diamonds. s. So, if s. So, if s. So, if you focus on high low you focus on high load and. and medium technology and medium technology here again we find that there are two again we find that there are

Changes in the export Cheers. changes in the export Cheers. changed but so have the RC changed but so have the RCS ratios. So both of them are change ratios. So both of them are changing we are moving towards changing we are moving towards we are moving towards the comparative advantages in.

N the in more n the in more sophisticated not n the in more sophisticated products. products. Now this is where we have this Now this is where we have this crowd Now this is where we have this product complexity complexity index. we have we have used it.

This has been developed by Harvard School in their growth Harvard School in their growth lab, so we use those products lab, so we use those product labs, this is the. product. Classic complexity index and Classic complexity index. And this is done at for digital And this is done at for digital

And this is done at four digit level, si etc. and here again we find that the products. under. r this this actually this this actually shows this. only shows, those ually shows this only shows, those products where we have our CS those products where we have

Our c is greater than or equal to one. And on the spot on the, on the ball on the spot on the, on the bottom side we have. e the different levels of e the different levels of productivity complexity and hear me. find that there has been in

Find that there has been in place find that there has been pleased. In those products where we have product complexity it where we have product complexity greater than zero. So that’s what Wi Fi. find that there is no find that there is increasing product complexity in India’s export

Product complexity in India’s exports, as well. So, let us see what. what We find here be fine what We find here we find that there has been export. But then it would But then it would not be sustained and we. would not would not really improve our not really improve our ranking.

Ng in terms of exports ng in terms of exports in the ng in terms of exports in the world in terms of exports in the world, export. Mark it is very important for you. the foreclosure process that history the foreclosure process that it remains sustained over a long

Period of time somehow we couldn’t really do that. then then it is it then it is, it has been a company. ed by diversification in ed by diversification, in terms of both labor for of both labor for Cheers and RC Cheers and RCA, but Cheers and RCA, but still it is

Highly concentrated in the sense that 83% of export comes from sense that 83% of export comes from top 10%. 0% of six digit product 0% of six digit products. So, so still we need to have more diversification but what is important. nt is that there was no special

Nt is that there was no specialization that that happened. Rc distribution has changed Rc distribution has changed more prominently, this is what we prominently, this is what we found. and highly is. and highly is. skewed lled RC values of lled RC values of traditional lled RC values of traditional

Products, they have come down. wn. So they wn. So they are becoming desert wn. So they are becoming less competitive and other products are competitive and other products are becoming more. common competitive Now, that is the meaning of that is Now, that is the meaning of that

Is the implication of this. So what we find in what is very what we find in what is very important is that. our export struck our export structure is upgrades our export structure is upgrading substantially upgrading substantially. upgrading substantially. Now, this is something which is a very important thing to

Understand and it is not only in terms of shares but also in terms of comparative advantage. So what is the what is the employee So what is the what is the implication. India is losing. reveal competitive advantage. ge in labor intensive ge in labor intensive lower skilled products, despite the

Skilled products, despite the skilled products, despite the fact that we are. still still labeled abundant country labeled abundant country. This is despite the fact This is despite the fact that we are still labor abundant country. on the On the other hand, RC is or emerge

The other hand, RC is are emerging in labor. or intensive and technology into or intensive and technology intensive more complicated, products. So even though factor and products. So even though factor and government based advantages. has remained. d with the changes only in the d with the changes only in the

Top levels. So, these products top levels. So, these products are still. still still having those compared. ative advantages those study ative advantages those traditional products, but dynamic comparative advantages dynamic comparative advantages dynamic comparative advantages ve be immersive and ve be immersive, and how it is emerging I tried to it

Emerging I tried to explain this in terms of the marriage theory in terms of the marriage theory. What happened was that during What happened was that during what how I look at it, how I have what how I look at it, how I

What how I look at it, how I have explained it is. that during this protective that during this protective Regime, several forms in india, they accumulated product they accumulated productive capability. ities and and. and this bB and this be these capabilities. were acquired were acquired in those sectors

Were acquired in those sectors which were competitive advantage defying sectors, this advantage defying sectors. This was because the focus. s was on building those high s was on building those high tech High capital intensive industry tech High capital intensive industries within the economy. Now what happened after economically

Now what happened after the Now what happened after the economic liberalism, the. constraints, what constraints are unlocked and these constraints are unlocked and these economies they reap the these economies they reap the benefits of globalization. there earlier possible there earlier possible. So they actually tried to reap the benefits.

Managed to overcome that managed to overcome the Institutional constraint and Institutional constraint and upgrading the. export experts, so So these are the be so So these are the be so so. , and these , and these are pretty , and these are particularly because of GDP participation because of GDP participation

Where they include they acquired Technological capabilities acquired Technological capabilities, so these. se micro levels se micro levels micro levels. Kind of. course Kind of contributions they became very important. nt in in in nt in in in changing the, the nt in in in changing the, the pattern of distinct

Pattern of distribution of pattern of distribution of exports and RCS. point point here is now here is know why this one. s why we have lost compared why we have lost comparative advantage. really compare competitive advantage in competitive advantage in labor intensive products despite being labeled abundant. Now this is something

Abundant. Now this is something which is where the conflict is. s. And here I see that one the conflict is. And here I see that. One possibility is the id revolution. We actually went for it. they will be here we had iD revolution. And this might have created

And this might have created woman And this might have created woman cause disease effect woman cause disease effect mobile cause disease effect is when the expanding sectors. s sector has been s sector has been one sector is growing rapidly. then Then, which is also start growing Then, which is also start

Growing, and when we this growing this sector. , they pulled the way , they pulled the basis of other sectors also in upward sectors also an upward direction and this affects the cost structure. of the of the economy the economy. So I think this this is

So I think this this is, this is one factor that might have effect one factor that might have affected the cost structure of labor intensive sectors. this is one factor that might have affected the cost sectors, and we started losing our competitiveness in the sector’s I’m

The sector’s. I’m not really blaming sector’s. I’m not really blaming the labor. factors in labor law factors in labor laws or any factors in labor laws or any such thing, because there are being which we must pay attention which we must pay attention to the which we must pay attention to.

Then We find that most of the Then We find that most of these external most of the economy is external most of the economies in the world, the economies in. the world the world the world. They took at the world. They took advantage of contemporary globalization of contemporary globalization and they integrated themselves

Into global value chains. And these global value chains And these global value chains they and they were very successful. especially in truly especially in the traditional ducts, and they used ducts, and the used space and they used special economic zones. as the key tool. spell massive Fisker

Spell massive Fiscal deficits work spell massive Fiscal deficits were given to special Economic to get costs to get cost competitive advantages in to get cost competitive advantages in these traditional advantages in these traditional products, India’s experiment in good could never bring those kinds of

Could never bring those kinds of desirable. results or outcomes results or outcomes. in this but they were they weren’t even less successful. than seS SES and than seS SES and India eventually than seS SES and India food parks several types of parks, we, we started, but they

Were even less successful than SES and India eventually lost its comparative advantage in traditional. tradition traditional products to products to new production centers new production centers we cannot look at India in Isolation we e need to see what the other countries are also doing so

Countries are also doing. So these new. products production centers emerge. in Southeast Asia. ia, South Asia and South ia, South Asia, South Asia for instance bangladesh and middle East instance bangladesh and middle East Asia, including East Asia, including and other countries will go ahead and other countries recovered.

So, so, so these. se, these countries, actually se, these countries, actually se, these countries actually we’re Benefited these countries actually received the graph actually received the graph, sports actually received the graph, sports in these. pretty sector. So, but in India, what have but in India what happened that. this loss income

This loss in competitive advantage in traditional sector , could not be offs but not , could not be offs but not the be offset by growth in. n nontraditional experts were nontraditional exports, where our community. is you As you started. showing showing up. So over showing up. So overall, we find

That this scenario that this scenario, may have. pulled pulled down the group down the growth. So, these are my last business these are my last, this is my last. slide slide here, and here slide here and here we find that India now needs to under India now needs to understand

That in that the. there there is a there there is a. There are emerging died there is a. There are emerging dynamic comparative advantages in dynamic comparative advantages in non traditional sectors. This is something that we This is something that we must understand, and we need to push

Understand, and we need to push them. This is the, we are them. This is the, we are familiar with the product. space space theory would see us space theory would say is that the country is with competitive strength in sophisticated. strength in sophisticated. d and complex product

D and complex products, fee is better and complex products, face better growth prospects, then those who then those who are not. ot. So, we must understand ot. So, we must understand that this is the time to upgrade e the Exports. Be e the Exports, because this can only

E the Exports, because this can only build a basis for further growth now. , not to go back to , not to go back to traditional Expo not to go back to traditional Experts. So this is a time this is a time presenting you. that even in traditional

That even in traditional industries know focus should be on industries know focus should be on higher value added products in on higher value added products in the world is not likely to compete live. le bit So, for instance, Vietnam. m, or bangladesh m, or bangladesh, or even now

M, or bangladesh, or even now, Indonesia, I have recently worked on Indonesia, I have recently worked on Indonesia and some other se. East Asia theast Asian countries, messy theast Asian countries, massive capacities, they are creating in terms of special Economics. zones or other economic zones zones or other economic zones

Or other economic zones, and they are trying to. offer offer them using them huge incentives. ntives to really address to really attract a lot of such to really attract a lot of such investment, which is, which is more of. labor intensive nature. For that we find that you

For that we find that youth. needs to be the. expert the aspirations are changing of that the aspirations are changing of the young population. they are they are more looking at better they are more looking at better they are more looking at better job prospects and therefore they need to be.

Prepared prepared more in terms of prepared more in terms of skill again again more in terms of skill attainment and more complex. task, as he said task, as he said task, as he said, is something which I’ve been is something which I’ve been writing a lot and I think that. considering

Considering that whatever is happy considering that whatever is happening in the in considering whatever is happening in the world. It is important that we. must remember. evamp this policy, you have this policy. You have to look at the large industrial parks, including. g logistic pass me g logistic pass me

G logistic pass mega footpaths multi logistic pass mega footpaths multi logistic parks. which which I think prefer. ional ional in party was in party was talking about. Coastal economic Zones which we Coastal economic Zones which we had proposed. Then, in had proposed then invest in national investment in manufacturing.

Zones which we had proposal several zones which we had proposal several policies have gone, but what several policies have gone, but what is happening to them. this This needs to be seen. What is the This needs to be seen. What is the kind of constraint that they are facing.

And we And we have to address them us And we have to address them using a kind of holistic approach. So any push. to the to the, to the low skill the, to the low skilled labor. or intensive industries in the car or intensive industries in the

Consent in the current con con consent in the current context, may not be very. effect effective. So, the effective. So, we must identifiable effective. So, we must identify the export of employment potential in the industry is we are dynamic. Let me just briefly give you one example which is a recent. meeting

Miss I’ve observed in my recent visit to. And what I found i spoke with the what I found i spoke with people. which which is which, in which is which. So, what textile So, what textile industry. So there is a fabric part which there is a fabric part which

There is a fabric part which came up, which was totally. totally totally failed. d. And then we had d. And then we had this simplicity as he said well simplicity as he said, where we simplicity as he said, where we have some value added. which are which are most of the industry

Which are most of the industries are in electronics or electrical engineering. they are we find that there is a lot they are we find that there is a lot of rush for People to come. So lot of rush for People to come. So, and that actually. has triggered a kind of.

Of incentive, Paul of incentive, Paul incentive. Also, to it. quire knowledge, so quire knowledge. So, these knowledge. So, these are the dynamics. field upgrade it products and upgrade it products and. d any kind of see any kind of sEe pa or. or CFO or any. free trade agreement. I think

I think that can be there I think that can be there, we can be successful only if the can be successful only if we can be can be successful only if we can be stamped on our own competitiveness this. This is a strong new, actually

This is a strong new. Actually I This is a strong new. Actually I have written about that even in my earlier one of them. my earlier one of them. arlier arlier to find arlier to finally, and most importantly, we need to. place international competitive place international competitiveness.

At the center of this data the center of this rhetoric of. self reliance the self reliance. This is something which is very important for us to achieve important for us to achieve. competency competitor Thank you very much. Yeah, thank you very much, Madam thank you very much, Madam, or four.

Very, very much. We can say, In depth analysis We can say, In depth analysis of the india’s explore the india the export diverse, so the india the export diversification of export how. t how majority of t how majority of our product service t how majority of our products are still, especially the

Traditional products which was exploited in past it exploited in past is still continuing. that also shows our that also shows our competitiveness. Even though many Even though many Even though many countries are Even though many countries are coming up as a comma coming up as a competitor.

The data which you have presented data which you have presented about. t the continuing products, which is t the continuing products, which is still competitive, that is still one of the very important. point which I have. which which I have taken from which I have taken from your

Lecture, but at the same time. a very small. l entry of the nucleus entry of the new products that also source that also source, a new india and that also source, a new india and that also source, a new india entering in the global market, but entering in the global market.

But that has to be a sentence. day bye day by day, and that day by day. And that’s where various escape. which which you have named in the last part of your nature that last part of your nature. That has to be very serious That has to be very seriously,

That has to be very seriously, taught at the state level. So, when So, when I was a student of So, when I was a student of So, when I was a student of. gotchas Bachelor and And that was the time, India And that was the time, India And that was the time, India

Started economic reform and started economic reform, and when started economic reform. And when India started economic reforms, there were three other. er very important point er very important point that is bundle bundle bundle bundle and Amanda. So this this Model is this this Model is the cost politics. the boom

Bundle is the. So, today also when up lexicon So, today also when up Alexa needs on various other states are fighting their elections. that the So before. So before. Inviting professor side. These are Inviting professor side. These are my points, but prefer are my points. But, professor

Side or not is a external side or not is a extensively involved in in. n the internet n the international trade, especially looking india’s Expo especially looking india’s Export and trade policy in past. past. So I’d like to invite now So I’d like to invite now professor of not for his remark.

Thank you know Lynn and you know Lynn and the cheer. Professor Melissa Professor Melissa and Professor Melissa. And let me congratulate prefer let me congratulate professor at nine. gle alpha rowell for. Excellent rowell for excellent presentation and rowell for excellent presentation for excellent presentation. And for her detailed.

And for her detailed research. insights. Given about grow to diverse Given about growth diversification issues related diversification issues related to India do. as export the s export. The one thing export. The one thing. from the from the lecture. in my in my opinion immerses in my opinion immerses that.

T the important aspect of it the important aspect if india want to grow. The interest strength is nicer interest strength is necessary. Internal. Whether it is. globe competitiveness. s, or internal or internal issues. , the internal strength , the internal strength is necessary component for any necessary component for any

Global success. that is that is, the. e basically it basically emerging Policy basically emerging Policy application form professor. As a discussion to have As a discussion. I have only few a discussion. I have only few points and. few additions because already. Professor the wall has. as indicated

As indicated. All aspects of life as indicated. All aspects related to growth and diversification. Now, as far as growth is going Now, as far as growth is concerned, the one thing LED me the concerned, the one thing LED me the positive aspect. of it of india’s economies

Of india’s economy since 1998 india’s economy since 1991. There is a. s one positive aspect s one positive aspect in Ecuador s one positive aspect in Economic policy space and Economic policy space. And as an economist. And that is when And that is when we teach in macro

That is when we teach in macro economics. cs expectation theory that cs expectation theory, the rational expectation hypothesis. is in Macro economic is in Macro economic is in Macro economics now in Macro economics. The one aspect about The one aspect about last The one aspect about last 30

The one aspect about last 30 years The one aspect about last 30 years, the respective. of residential of residential change whether. the UPA or. the UPA or. or ndA in or ndA india’s part or ndA india’s part. All CCE space is more or less in macro sense

Space is more or less in macro sense is common. There is no. no in So, particularly There is no. In, particularly in global space In, particularly in global space , which you call export or , which you call export oriented growth strategies or growth strategies or related to me.

O FDA or related to o FDA or related to other strategies o FDA or related to other strategies. There is a globe broad There is a globe broad consensus There is a globe broad consensus in all political parties in all political parties and. those those who are participating with

Those who are participating within the US economy, whether it is a global exporter or it is a global exporter of the farms or. they have a quite common they have a quite common expectation that the respective expectation that irrespective of internal politics in india. The default following policies. In.

And there is a positive impact And there is a positive impact of this particular aspect. t, and in this way and in this way. I mean to the. in there in depth with already professor in depth with already professor the wall indicated, what has happened. As far

As far as growth is concern As far as growth is concerned, As far as growth is concerned, Expo As far as growth is concerned. But when we see the But when we see the word. the Prophet the chair of the Prophet the chair of this presentation Professor us

Presentation Professor I said is indicating. for us The Indonesia, Vietnam. and Korea. and Korea. The basically india most The basically india mostly when. looks from. a few fingers. articularly in Chinese in China’s China’s perspective. doing it so unit size and unit size, and india is unit size, and india is to stand by

Size, and india is to stand by. I just look at the figures I just look at the figures. Not looking at the figures of 2019 Not looking at the figures of Not looking at the figures of 2019 20 822 2021 2019 20 822 2021. We i treat them as.

As a structural break or figures of 2019 28 to 2021 BI to them as a structural break or temporary so, because of this pandemic situation. But if. f you see the fingers But if you see the figures. But if you see the figures. India’s around as India’s around, as far as Merchandise

Around, as far as Merchandise around, as far as Merchandise Street. it is around 300. d 320 25 d 320 25 below d 320 25 billion why China’s is is 320 25 billion why China’s is is more than 2000. It is around 320 25 billion while China’s is is more than

2300 something that eight times differences to India. standards While we While we in While we, in that way. In that way, we are we have to do a lot, both as far as diverse do a lot, both as far as diversification is concerned or as far as. Market penetration.

On is concerned, and is concerned. And for that way. Professor of the wall indicated of the wall indicated that. the moment. India’s Export is now India’s Export is now India’s Export is not growing in the areas we are RCA the areas we are RCA is competitive

The areas we are RCA is competitive. But the theory also But the theory also says that it But the theory also says that, that are here works in a desktop that are here works in a distortionary non distortionary. trade with trade magazine and magazine. And mostly what we have observed that

Mostly what we have observed that. the structure the structure of the distortions structure of the distortions are Earlier in 1930. Earlier in 1930s when us this. misled this to hold distortion his to hold distortion of the to hold distortion of distortion the process. ss by Terry fact of

Ss by Terry fact of 1930s ss by Terry fact of 1930s. Now there are no babies there are entities. We have observing that. t law variety of the store t law variety of distortions are existing existing way existing existing where you are feeling. competed competitive there are variety of

Competitive there are variety of distortions are coming either in antidumping forms or. some health issues and some health issues and others, and some health issues and others. regime is regime is not working if effect is not working as effectively. particular particularly the web particularly the w to there is

No success story in no success story in LAst. after after regular wrong after regular on there debt regular on. regular on. There is no big at There is no big achievements of WTF is no big achievements of who. might multilateral framework multilateral framework rather there is a lot of issues of

Multilateral blue letter multilateral blue lateral nature, discussion is taking place. though it has failed but now though it has failed but nobody’s talking about even. n the directors n the director general of the n the director general of the W to never talks about it that

To never talks about it, that what happened to the. desert desire of the developing countries of the developing countries, or. All Indonesia Vietnam All Indonesia Vietnam india. Bangladesh Bangladesh, what happened to all Bangladesh, what happened to all these people, even the multilateral forum not discussion and destroy destroy

Discussion and destroy destroy or distortionary Days EMA. even some way or another way, it way or another way, it there. preferred Professor at the wall is already at the wall is already indicated one line. there is It doesn’t guarantee of success and you will be always and you will be always in.

In, in many of my own in, in many of my own research you’ll find with based on General. framework framework, there is always a look there is always a losers and Ganas. It will give a success. Most of the time. Most of the time. There are you

There are, you may be a loser in d particularly the vision d particularly the vision particularly the vision icon me there are. are significant sectors are significant second segment which is a loose nt which is a loser side of the story nt which is a loser side of the

Nt which is a loser side of the story which is a loser side of the story. Now if you see this. s word. My word, my own. which which is accepted page which is accepted paper but the which is accepted paper but the data from that if I say this. simple

Simple steps simple statistics from India statistics from India to China. In 2018 In 2018 one In 2018. One data raw data which 7.48%. And if you see the. inter intermediate products, indeed intermediate products, india, export around 32% export around 32% and export around 32% and. d the consumer moves around

The consumer moves around 45%. % and capital goods around and capital goods around 14%. %. And when you compare %. And when you compare with this fever with China. this fever with China. the raw material the raw material in China the raw material in China export only the raw material in China export

Only just 1.66%. And this. interview intermediate goods around six goods around 16%. %, and consumer and consumer goods around. and consumer goods around. nd 35% and nd 35% and capital goods around nd 35% and capital goods around 46% nd 35% and capital groups around 46%. So this tells us. where we.

This as far as the big This as far as the economy is concerned and which is developing economy nearby. is still still be. e are the e are the lower end as far are the lower end as far as either. the this is the ther the this is the stage of

Ther the this is the stage of processing data. This is still processing This is still processing data which tells us that we which tells us that we are some. beer or the lower beer or the lower end of the cycle. As far as India and. come, while China is now

Come, while China is now. Exploiting six good Exploiting sydney if you just add Exploiting sydney if you just add 35 plus 45 works out to be around. 80% 80%. export export of China is export of China is false of China is falls in the category of. either. either.

R the consumer goods or the r the consumer goods or the capital goods. While india is now capital goods. While india is not. t the Lower end of that the Lower end of that fit either. either either the raw material which either the raw material which is

Around 8% and then the. intermediate goods. are some are some figure and some figure. if you there was the professor. of Neurology of Neurology indicated that see of Neurology indicated that she has evaluated Hall, from. Ecuador a technology perspective which is a technology perspective which is technology perspective which is

Technology perspective which is a lot. a log classification. If log classification. If you see this. s big economies companies in s big economies companies in like China, India. India has x India has export. fall in the category of the fall in the category of the Lowest low skilled and medium

Scale Lowest low skilled and medium skewed category. While the. China China’s measures measures significant. portion of the category of media. media , medium to the high school category medium to the high school category of export. But there is a lot. ot of potential of Expo of potential of Export diversification.

As far as. India India is concerned, yes is concerned. Yes. is concerned. Yes. But what a potential. And when we see the product diverse when we see the product diversification. that destination parts destination participation yes there is a more diverse there is a more diversification has. taken place. We

Taken place. We taken place. We are now having a taken place. We are now having a looky spell, look. looky store. And also we have a And also we have a effort to. penetrate African market. to India to India has a more diversified to India has a more diversification and if you see

There is a. reduction through reduction through the sheer have developed countries as have developed countries, as far as india’s Export for. far as india’s Export for. concerned, we are concerned, we are more diverse concerned, we are more diversification, as far as destiny diversification, as far as destination is concerned export desk

Concerned export destinations. Or, but still at. Or, but still at. There is a lot to attain it is a lot to attain it to diversify. because if because if there is any sort if there is any sort to us economy. Do we need to. participate more to the

Participate more to the east participate more to the east. East Asia. . Neighbors we have . Neighbors we have , neighbors, we have an agreement neighbors, we have an agreement. with India Sean with India Shawn and. nd on, we have not joined nd on, we have not joined our separate.

There is a lot potentials There is a lot potential, a free There is a lot potential Africa we have not done much there we have not done much. There is need to do. a lot of participation. in African economies. what what the China has done. We what the China has that we are

Lagging behind what for. At the end. I will At the end, I will say that. we should know should not learn. from these 22 from these 20 to 32 teeth from these 20 to 30 to 2021 we should note that India has, so should note that India has succeeded. along

As far as export as far as export is concerned because this is global song. And when the say the when the say the badly us is bad. badly affected Europe is badly affected Europe is badly affected India is less badly affected obviously us affected obviously us she had will increase, particularly pharma.

And we have to just come to And we have to just come to the normal situation and then we should make it just. gment that are the India has gment that are the India has done a wonderful job in as, as far as. as export is concerned in there

As export is concerned in there as export is concerned and there’s a reason when I am. doing any research. I’m restricting myself I’m restricting myself too. o touch o touch 018 or 2009 018 or 2019. Non, non 2018 or 2019 non not looking much figures to the

Much figures for the for this of bread because. e for radical misled e for bread economists later on we have to evaluate this time we have to evaluate this time series data. how to capture this. healthy health issues because this is health issues because this is giving not right.

Not right results, in my opinion right results, in my opinion. Obama and Hillary Obama and later on. from Obama and later on, Trump and. FDA, yes, if FDA, yes, if we can do. do on me do on mutually beneficial with India you or India with India you or India uk or.

Or india us or india us good enough that we should do it. provides provided we. agreed on mutual. agreed on mutual. Terms of. trade trade mature in terms of mature in terms of benefit. and I congratulate. e also the origin of e also the origin for organizing this

E also the origin for organizing this event, and I stop it here. Yeah, thank you very much. Yeah, thank you very much. Oh, no, we have. e few questions, so no, we have few questions, so. let me let me read off some let me read off some of the questions.

So one of the question So one of the question is fine So one of the question is fine one of the question is for professor. at the bar at the bottom about is at the bottom about is the US playing the bottom about is the US playing around with India.

First, A big First, a big then minutes First, a big then mini trade deal now First, a big then mini trade deal. None of these are in the offering Can you explain the Linda offering Can you explain the policy dilemma. in this. this. this should I should I read other

I should I read other questions also. guess Yes, yes. Yeah. the second the second The second question is a The second question is, again The second question is, again. about about both about both the papers are call about both the papers are comprehensive and informative. . Why, there seems

Why, there seems less intro. there is no regional trade amongst sock trade amongst sock. Despite the. reason initiatives. What about for What about facilitation on What about facilitation on trade trade front to Nepal. l and the very small economy and the very small economies of so Casey. Asia Asia. So, now

So, next part of this question So, next part of this question is about Nepal could become x is about Nepal could become export base for India wins export base for India win win situation. could could occur them, as in occur them as India is one of the. e premier investors country

E premier investors country after China, India. For the first For the first question was. about about fDA and about fDA. And the second question was on the interest question was on the interests are. trade Yeah, thank you very much Yeah, thank you very much for thank you very much for for

These questions. for us First of all, so First of all, so let’s let me ll you the first question first. Now ll you the first question first. Now, so far as the US is concerned, I think. the way US is. US is us have some sort of. us have some sort of

Uncertainty and its policy and its policy, you know. you know you know that the last region you know that the last regime of Trump. He here He had a sort of He had a sort of He had a sort of idea about He had a sort of idea about, he was

He had a sort of idea about, he was not really interested in to all was not really interested into all these trade and the all these trade and these trade agreements. agreements. he was more focused he was more focused on the domestic economy. So his focus was on

So his focus was on how to promote manufacturing within the call. onomy, and he his and he his Attention to the. rest of the rest of the world was not really rest of the world was not really there and we know that how he pulled out of these pulled out of these various

Negotiation TPI P. and all those. So. there there is still there there is still, they have to still come to the track, first of all this is very important to of all this is very important to now. Now, at the same time be at the same time, they actually the policy regarding India.

They They look at India as They look at India as a big market. Now, this must be understood market. Now, this must be understood that. India India is seen as a big mouth India is seen as a big market and any deal that they want to do is

And any deal that they want to do is to promote. e their exports enough ote their exports and FDA within India. So what is happening at the moment is So what is happening at the moment is that there is a sort of person, you know, and the

Of person, you know, and the of person, you know, and they are not very sure. whether India is going to whether India is going to give them. give them give them the kind of. you know f the space for that the space for that. So there, there is a exists

So there, there is bailing bailing So there, there is billing billing period and that is happening in this in this happening in this in these FDA in fact if you look at even. n us and he us and EU. They have been legacy attrition have been negotiating have been negotiating

Negotiating for a long. long time, and , long time. And they haven’t yet reached any conclusion. So yet reached any conclusion. So I paid. that that that with that with growing. national nationalism, that has nationalism, that has been taking place after, after this taking place after, after this Crisis.

There is a sort of. backtracking, so backtracking so far as International backtracking so far as International. agreement agreements are concerned agreements are concerned, bigger countries are looking for countries are looking for me countries are looking for more space. space. to be to be given. Whereas to be given. Whereas, smaller

To be given. Whereas, smaller countries, they really want to. They are not really in the mood to give that kind of space to give that kind of space. So of course this has affected of course this has affected these, these deals, and they. are not are not really coming to any

Are not really coming to any conclusion. So we have started with we have started with you again. we have started we have started with Medallia we have started with. Now we’re talking about the UK, we are, we are also, we are already we are also, we are already getting out with the US.

S, but these mangoes here S, but these negotiations don’t happen quickly because of happen quickly because of the kind of domestic politics, that kind of domestic politics, that kind of domestic politics, that is also becoming very important. t. So, so actually t. So, so actually I agree here with

So, so actually I agree here with the professor Hsu. eed Muhammad eed Muhammad, that we should eed Muhammad, that we should strengthen the W to multi letter. ralism that have been going on now have been going on now. I’m afraid to say that. t, but the trade

T, but the trade sheer has not read t, but the trade sheer has not 4.5 to 5%, so 4.5 to 5%. So international trade 4.5 to 5%. So international trade in Chinese and actually it within softer. They are that that hasn’t really are that that hasn’t really. that has

That hasn’t that hasn’t read that hasn’t that hasn’t really grown much. So this is what we grown much. So this is what we must understand. Now this is, this is something Now this is, this is something which is about political account which is about political economy. So, there is a note.

Ot of political economy that is ot of political economy that is playing this part and playing this part, and again playing this part. And, again, I think that. it is very is very important to have. trust trust me you know trust me you know when you were talking about into our original

Talking about international agreements. So somewhere, I think So somewhere, I think that countries are now looking to countries are now looking to other countries I mean the this, so other countries I mean the the south Asian countries. they are they are looking to other they are looking to other

Groupings. For instance, we find groupings. For instance, we find that some, some countries are looking to. to correct some countries to correct some countries are looking to do this. It’s been stuck, I think. nk. So these are the, these are nk. So these are the, these are

Different groupings that we are looking. so. So, to stop the issue to stop the issue. Should I add something here Should I add something Yeah, no of course i will give you don’t don’t want to make a deal don’t want to make a huge comments on

Don’t want to make a huge comments on software actually comments on software actually because he I mean that song because he I mean that software is something that needs to be made is something that needs to be made effective. We need to understand how we We need to understand how we

Have that common history and how have that common history and how we can have the common geography. y, and how we can be benefit and how we can be benefited. trade trade linkages but at trade linkages but at the moment , things are not really moved , things are not really moving

The way that they should know. Nepal, Marina Very nice question actually in Very nice question actually enable could be the base for India’s exports nepal could also be India’s exports nepal could also be the, I mean, if both can also be the, I mean, if both can be benefited. through

Through, through these intern through, through these internal in cages, but somehow again in cages, but somehow in cages, but somehow. the political uncertainty. , the question of domestic politics all these again and again come up and things don’t again come up and things don’t store again come up and things don’t

Really happen. So, so. o any international relationship cannot be. a look looked upon the that looked upon without looking at the domestic dynamics that have the domestic dynamics that have been taking place, and some place, and sometimes these dynamics. don’t really allow. these international relations to these international relations to

Grow, and I think that is the main reason why soft. ftware is not happening or why is not happening or why at the moment. Many of these straightened out of these trade negotiations are just going. ng on and on and we are ng on and on and we are not

Really coming to any conclusion. Thank you. think hit can add something whatever. actually adjust . Actually, I just want to . Actually, I just want to add some things regarding the second question. about about napa, actually about napa, actually about napa, actually, what about napa, actually, what Professor The other one is

Saying, says Absolutely right. that there is no success story that there is no success story of softer. But I look at stuff But I look at halftime, two parts I look at halftime, two parts, you see. you see. when you when you see the soft as it

When you see the soft as economies, there are two economies, which is India and Pakistan, India accounts Pakistan, India accounts around 80% Pakistan, India accounts around 80% and pakistan. accounts accounts around 10% of accounts around 10% of the size of the phone of the phone. Then the 90% of these

Then the 90% of these two economy and there is you know there is a whole politics. about about the issues. The way about the issues. The when you look at the. figures figures of softer reason figures of softer reason that figures of softer reason that you will not find much success

Story you will not find much success story but there is other. part of the softer reason part of the softer reason, like part of the softer reason, like India Ceylon India, Sri Lanka India, Bangladesh. sh is there is a lot of success sh is there is a lot of success

Story about this that we have. in the region. particular particularly enjoy particularly, India, Bangladesh there is a good. or. sri Lanka whether you sri Lanka whether you can attribute for India, Sri Lanka FDA attribute for India, Sri Lanka FDA or you can actually go to softer. r, because India, Sri Lanka

R, because India, Sri Lanka r, because India, Sri Lanka nka obviously it is better deal than the India softer. But there is also a success story of But there is also a success story of India, Sri Lanka and the reason. Indian Indianapolis, right Indianapolis the right lead that

The right lead that there is a more potential. yet to be untapped. And the economic logic is there the economic logic is there, but. ultimately the. e, there is a governance, which is e, there is a governance which is political are ways to need to be. be. looked upon that person

Looked upon that perspective there looked upon that perspective. There is a subsection of the softer region which has benefited from softer and more benefited from softer and more. The India, Sri Lanka and India. bundle Bangladesh sri Lanka Bangladesh sri Lanka in Pakistan also. So there is some. ections

Ections within the region which ections within the region which is benefited but. ut as a whole because of ut as a whole because of the size of these two economies and the size of these two economies and the political economy of India and pakistan. working and it is affected

Working and it is affected. whole region, and whole region, and the regarding whole region, and the regarding trade facilitation. This is This is the only area which is nice This is the only area which is need to be involved because the issue. ssues related to the trade fair

Ssues related to the trade facilitation and bread hurdles. that is that you need that is that you need to look into. softer softer region region but tariffs is not enough tariffs is not in a globally and also in the region is not also in the region is not a big issue.

A globally and also in the region is not a big issue, except India and pakistan, that’s. s my head my additional. So. can we So, can we also have. So, can we also have. ve two minutes quick the way ve two minutes quick way for what from each of the speaker is

What from each of the speaker is starting from. starting from. broker sir. r serve thank you. Ellen thank you, Ellen. Just some very good point Just some very good points. for a good while a good while it mentioned. Bangladesh Bangladesh. I have a friend I have a different perspective. from from professor.

That 2012 that 2021 data that 2021 data. ta is or ta is or tired or his lot of ta is or tired or his lot of noise, and so on. what ways ways to growth rates are down to ways to growth rates are down to . And I think there is a

Structural change, which structural change, which we need to. take into account, including take into account, including to take into account, including the efforts. the efforts. ts of many of many countries now to now to. create create new stuff create new stuff create new supply chain create new supply chains and

New supply chains and logistics. new supply chains and logistics. change chain that are now chain that are not so overall that are not so overly dependent. nt on China, and nt on China, and many of you agree nt on China, and many of the agreements, like the. e board has gone

Board has got for example. , how he how the vaccine element. japan, and. others others. So there are a lot of others. So there are a lot of of things, it’s going to learn. o learn fast because o learn fast because of noble o learn fast because of global developments because of India’s

Efforts as well. But. Bangladesh Bangladesh was mentioned Bangladesh was mentioned I’ll just give you the finger in. 2021. days straight up. was 29 up was 29. up was 29. billion in billion. India was 400 India was 400. We don’t have India was 400. We don’t have service data, but service data. But, so.

Maria but India was as. I said I said 630. d 630 to eight a huge difference d 630 to eight a huge difference, but d 630 to eight a huge difference . But you are wearing right now But you are wearing right. But you are wearing right. He has taken opportunities in

Certain key, a model certain key commodities. product, which product, which india would product, which india would do well. ll to learn to learn from. a second Second, the experts to GDP Second, the experts to GDP growth the experts to GDP graph. Export to GDP. is on is only with respect to merge

Only with respect to merchandise. se. If we were to start If we were to start adding services. because it because India services because India services because India services in total because India services. In total brain is. is much higher than much higher than global. search services trade services trade to total

Trade to total trade. Once you start doing that Once you start doing that interest Once you start doing that interesting to see how the rankings. I don’t know I don’t know what they will I don’t know what they will be because I have not been working

Because I have not been working labor intensity labor intensity you professor labor intensity you professor labor intensity you, Professor Agarwal. you want to go to caroline you want to go to carolina and set up anything. for now are nowadays Punjab nowadays Punjab. a change a labor reforms a labor reforms are essential.

And we need and relate And we need and relate it later. ormed ormed at the larger ormed at the logistics costs ormed at the logistics costs on ormed at the logistics costs on at the logistics costs. One of the ways where we. lost competitiveness is over lost competitiveness is over

Lost competitiveness, is our logistic costs around 13. d 13%, so d 13%, as compared to the group d 13%, as compared to the global average of 67. That could be blue economy of the ways where we lost of the ways where we lost competitiveness, is our logistic

Costs around 13%, as compared to the global average of 67% the blue economy. but Marla but Marla. included. in in included in in. The. the other is the connectivity. logistics logistic Connected Connectivity was not so good was not so bad at mile. is going to. address address that side that Cybermen allies.

He said these are structural changes these are structural changes are going to last This is. hese are structural changes are going to last. This is not 21 is This is not 21 is not just one. you know This is not 21 is not just one. You know what, one year. thing as well.

A lot There is also. One of the things One of the things that. One of the things that we need to look at it we need to look at is what are need to look at is, what are the district’s. from which. ends in India’s export India’s exports are being made

India’s exports are being made, And what, so. o, recently piv recently pib. b had a table at the had a table that they published. which So one of the ways. strategy strategies to x to expand. the. the. india’s. diverse diversification is is to try to. get more. e and more Joker

And more geographical area. ea is where the Northeast come ea is where the Northeast comes in is is where the Northeast comes in, is where one. e district one prod e district one product program e district one product program in up e district one product program in up and other stuff

In up and other states that are. following it. So, this is why So, this is why it is structural So, this is why it is structural change is going to be change is going to be a major one that will have any impact one that will have any impact over the medium. term

Don’t. And we shouldn’t dismiss to And we shouldn’t dismiss 2021. figure Just like Just like that. It’s not Just like that. It’s not pharma alone like that. It’s not pharma alone. is the is the India is now the India is now. I think I think around 20th. th in defensive

In defense experts in the world. d and Philippines as d and Philippines as uding contract to contract to, I promise. essiah from. m Indian Ocean India. India is exports India is exports of. f defense, which we f defense, which we always shied side f defense, which we always shied

Away, and which you always is away, and which you always is going to. So we will get diverse going to. So we will get diversification it. t would take up t would take a few years, and would take a few years, and it would be. very can very interesting.

Thank you again for Thank you again for the. opportunity opportunity. But I learned a lot But I learned a lot. Thank you very much. Thank you, professor Thank you, professor. Now, professor you, professor. Now, professor side and then. prefer prefer at global. global agree with professor more

Agree with professor that with professor, that there is a lot. ot of potential and of potential and opportunities. of potential and opportunities. some some structural change some structural changes are taking place. I hope this works out. I hope this works out. what my life how that marla and connect

How that marla and connect how that marla and connectivity issues. like this there. e depends e depends, though depends. other successful implementation. lementation of these programs lementation of these programs like lementation of these programs of potential both in the diversification. firms front and the destination as well

Front and the destination as front and the destination as well as the product specifications. But he still. What is still there is need to do well. there is need to do well. a lot on a lot on internal front a lot on internal front of the corner

Lot on internal front of the economy. for good For globally, you can succeed For globally, you can succeed only when you. u are a successful economy u are a successful economy at your are a successful economy at your domicile. level, you have to. like, to the point. professor professor mobile indicate

Mobile indicated that. why district wise. outcome of growth. reasonable for the for the origin of the x for the origin of the x for the origin of the export from India, but if you. this the, there’s only few this the, there’s only few state or in India with this basic basic

State or in India with this, basically. oliday industrial. sector l segment, because we are in l segment, because we are india’s export originated from chapter 71. Man, the maximum shear around. more than two more than 21% and then than 21% and then. the step the chapter 71 and

Chapter 71 and then another. chapter. If I chapter. If I remember. this, see Chapter 71, which 71, which, which accounts. ts 15 and 12% and ts 15 and 12% and both the SECtor’s ts 15 and 12% and both the SECtors are. adjusted a gesture I’m referring to to to to

A gesture I’m grappling 22222 digit HS chapter 27 and 20 digit HS chapter 27 and 20. ore time ter belongs to the industrial ter belongs to the industrial component. component. Now, and the industry’s location and the industry’s location in India. you see the you see the where the know

You see the where the Northeast and we have the behalf stand and we have the hardest and will be sustained and the region. Lisa comes because of the Lisa comes because of the minerals and some oil, some company minerals and some oil, some component but.

T, but there is a lot to do but there is a lot to do as far as domestic. economy economy is concerned, too economy is concerned to the state economy is concerned to the state level reforms is needed. And more. struck And more structural reforms. . Not only this part

Not only this, particularly media type. pe of platforms which are generally generally generally on for public consumption. , but on the reforms that the , but on the reforms that the ground, how to invite the people ground, how to invite the people Hall, what is the concentration of fBI inferior.

Asons and and Beautiful state, those who are in state. Those who are investing in India where they are investing NCR reason, come to the. know knows noida then the the Noida then the buena and. Mumbai Mumbai and Maharashtra Mumbai and Maharashtra, the few reasons, only the you

Reasons, only the, you may be with him on to became on to became a global player. on to became a global player. In, as far as your experts In, as far as your export and. nd import regime is console nd import regime is concerned, and we need also to import

And we need also to import for successful. export export the data export the data protection is 10 export the data protection is tendencies need to be curtailed also within the within the. nation answer me this. there is a way there is a, we should not. should not fall should not follow the order

The old Policies that. there should be there should be a restriction on the there should be a restriction on imports and then export know we need need imports and then export know we need a raw material we need a technology we knew that the way technology we knew that the way

Technology we knew that we have to liberalize. the. And at the ground. it may be a state level. reforms and reforms and then definitely will reforms and then definitely will how to make that trip to to. I’m fully agree with I’m fully agree with Professor I’m fully agree with Professor

Michael from that point. of view of view, and internal staff of view, and internal staff of view, and internal strength has the key for the success in has the key for the success in global economy. And that yet to be. be achieved and there is a lot of

Be achieved and there is a lot of potential to do this. That’s the point That’s the point I want to make. thank you. professor a map and professor a month. And now, professor. Yes, first of all, thank you first of all, thank you very much for that. much for that. uestions

Uestions and for the comments uestions and further comments and for the comments and I think that that is enriched, and that that is enriched that that is enriched. Just a one or two points a one or two points I would like to address. to address. here when is the point of labor

Here when is the point of labor reform. which which professor they should resist which Professor they should raise actually labor reform is. s set to be the key set to be the key factor in India. And if you look at And if you look at the urban

Planners book and writings. he has He has emphasized this He has emphasized this as the single most important factor single most important factor for single most important factor for growth. Somehow it back feedback for growth. Somehow i think that. that that this is not really. that important, as

That important, as compared with many. other factors that need to be. promoted for instance building promoted for instance good infrastructure logistics. Good infrastructure logistics, good governance. You see, if they deserve. terprise terprise survey conducted by survey conducted by the world man which. shows shows the most shows the most important

Bottleneck in india for growth bottleneck in india for growth. This is what the phones. But apps, we don’t really want to discuss corruption, as to discuss corruption, as a kind of factor. which is which is, which has which is, which has penetrated in every layer of in every layer of our society,

So in every layer of our society, so that there was another survey recently. between which also shows that you need which also shows that in India, corruption was said to be the most. impact important bottleneck. So I think bottleneck. So I think this, we must keep in mind that correct

Must keep in mind that correct, and I. recorded according to my interviews according to my interviews with forms 20% of cost forms 20% of cost is accounted for forms 20% of cost is accounted for by corruption. for by corruption. They say that at every stage

They have to be of money, so they have to be of money. So, so. counted for by corruption. They say that at every stage they have to be of money. So, so one must understand that there are more important issues that are that are. actually actually ailing this in this economy.

Conomy and we need to really add we need to really address them. And just not focused only And just not focused only on liberty form. So this is what. at my point is that may not at my point is that may not be the kind of the most important factor or.

The key factor. or to promote labor in to promote labor intensive. protocol production that’s what, but that’s what about this point of. include including service including services into grow including services into grow into Expo. xports and they’ll see the GT and they’ll see the GDP growth

Rate I think that’s a very interesting. point point and that I point and that I see with that and that I see whether I can do that. Now, district wise again. According to them. In this current scenario that In this current scenario, the In this current scenario, the

Growth has become very regional specific use specific. You see, it has specific. You see, it has, it is a globalization. n, in which regions have n, in which regions have become more important, because it is the, it is the competency but one. ntage of the regions that

Ntage of the regions that decide whether you can really be competent really be competitive in the walmart be competitive in the market or not. And this is why you And this is why you know we have to promote we have to identify to promote we have to identify the regions.

Which bit which are which have the which are which have the potential, because not every region. can be be developed. see, we cannot really develop regions for exporting. g. This is something which g. This is something which is which g. This is something which is which, which has been the

Experience also, which is shown. that that we can give that we can give so much of incentives to a backward reason incentives to a backward reason and, but then we don’t find that kind of growth in those regions, so in those regions. So we need to. grow because.

Much of the growth, and this is Much of the growth. And this is where actually I think that interest where actually I think that industrial clusters, or industrial estate or, or, or. special special Economic zones, May special Economic zones may not be special economic zones be special economic zones.

I don’t believe that a special economic zone should be only for me economic zone should be only for exports. I strongly right for exports. I strongly right against that. that that they should be you know that they should be you know that they should be an all i

That they should be an all I that they should be an all I really feel that they should be now open. with incentives only two with incentives only to export with incentives to only. search productive activity. ities high tech productive activity high tech productive activities are not to all of them.

M. So, this is what actually m. So, this is what actually, they they should have that kind of changing the mindset. when it comes to Special Economic when it comes to Special Economic zones, but that can go somewhere because they are. being find that in India. some

Some of these special economic zones of these special economic zones like in city city. I just I just want to bring that in there there I just want to bring that in, just to tell you that I had been to this area which was totally. lly area area.

There was no economic activity and There was no economic activity in that area except mango growing and growing and Betty growing and growing and Betty was subsistence. economy economy. And today, if you go economy. And today if you go o there, you find that it is a totally takes place.

Totally takes place. It is, it is totally commerce It is, it is totally commercialized and, and there is a earlier, the companies were is a earlier, the company’s we’re finding a lot of. people people unemployed for every people unemployed for every position. Now they don’t have people. to get to get

O get employed, so get employed. So, so I think we So, so I think we should learn from such places. s such examples in India s such examples in India, because there are examples in india, and see how we can reach india, and see how we can, we can do that.

T. So, I’m there t. So, and there are competitive advantage of this in the sense that it is very close to Chile that it is very close to Chile that it is very close to China, and it has the connectivity, it has connectivity, it has the boards. s. It has the airport, so

It has the airport. So, in the the in the in the in the proximity the in the in the proximity. So I think those kinds of I think those kinds of. companies competitiveness advantages me competitiveness advantages maybe Identify it and we can promote them them. But overall, we cannot really promote

But overall we cannot really promote all the. you know you know, districts are all you know, districts are all you know, districts or all these places are all the states. you know with the kind of investment know with the kind of investment that we have so. o, so we need to

O, so we need to be more selective, so that’s what my ideas ideas. Thank you. Thank you very much, professor. t the world t the rope now the rope. I would like to again invite. Professor Professor for Professor for for the computer. remarks. Thank you, professor. Merlin I think.

Thank you, professor Merlin. I think I already know I think I already made my. y comments and comments, and even. en main argument main arguments that. hat I wanted hat I wanted I wanted to. and way. convey me. the bond. the one professor the one professor, shy the mud and

One professor, shy the mud and my. shy the mud and myself. that that are many points that are many points of agreement. And the import and intellect and intellectual community. The report When the right. When the right type of reforms. as well whoever makes it. es it anywhere in the country

Es it anywhere in the country. I think this is what some think this is what something that. that. at we cannot take forward at we cannot take forward as usual at we cannot take forward. As usual. This has been a very rich This has been a very rich. set of discussion.

From which everybody can from which everybody can learn a lot and King. Henry and reflect Thank you. Yeah Thank you Professor Nelson. efore closing this efore closing this webinar closing this webinar. Before closing this webinar, three important points from the three speakers from the session is from Professor intervals

Presentation, I got this point that India is still one of the competitive. exporter, especially exporter, especially for those exporter, especially for those products in which india had products in which india had products in which india had. competitiveness competitiveness in past at the competitiveness in past. At the same time, Professor that

Was presentation also throwing some was presentation also throwing some light on. n how India is also n how India is also coming up with n how India is also coming up with some new products and, which was added by. prefer professor of his point professor has has point that yes

, very soon India will very soon India will start. to export some of the difference. difference Difference material also and maybe Difference material. Also in, maybe exporter of many different defense items. So the second point which So the second point which professor or some me professor or some made. in relation to.

The today’s discussion the today’s discussion and and is that. whatever whatever new project whatever whatever new projects such as part of Mala Mala such as part of Mala Mala. and good and new interest and new infrastructure which India and new infrastructure which India needs to build up. This will result. Very soon

This will result, very soon in a very positive direction, so very positive direction. So whatever we. are having today. that is That is not the truth. What That is not the truth, what we will have. ve in future that ve in future that is more dependent on what type

Dependent on what type dependent on what type of new infrastructures are created and infrastructures are created and how these infrastructure infest how these infrastructure infrastructure so linked together with some of the exporting. estate estates, as well estates, as well and as highlighter g estates, as well as, as

Highlighted by professor said that the district level. of readiness of readiness should be also of readiness should be also there and some of the new this ricts must, must be at must, must be added in our. Export destinations. So, the entire So, the entire discussion is not one

So, the entire discussion is not only bringing the problem only bringing the productivity epic only bringing the proper is also bringing the EXPort is also bringing the EXPort destination. diversification of diversification. And the point which professor site amateurs. As brought as a part of this discussion is how

Multi-lateralism is being fed the hot, the heart declaration is on the back seat. There is no further improve There is no further improvement on There is no further improvement on the issue of public health even during the Corbett 19 my recent even during the Corbett 19 my

Recent paper which was published on. six january 2000. 2020 has highlighted 2020 has highlighted in india quarterly. how for it and to whoever. the majority of the country. s are even during the debate 19 my even during the debate 19 my recent paper which was published

On six January 2020 has highlighted in India quarterly that how for attend to whoever the majority of the countries are playing with the, with the card with the, with the card, and they with the, with the card, and they are not deciding anything

On the patient whoever so very on the patient whoever so very soon on the patient whoever so very slow progress so start. rt W to is now rt W to is not in the position to control, one of the to control. One of the most important issue

One of the most important issue One of the most important issue that is the vaccine for all. l. And this cannot l. And this cannot be solved without the patient river. and for which. the art the article, 13 the article, 31 h, and 31 article, 31 h and 31 F of the.

E trips trip sacrament. provider provides us an opportunity to provides us an opportunity to go for that, but it is for that, but it is not happening because. ecause the there is enough there isn’t any cooperation and the. There isn’t any cooperation and the corporation, God is not working. space

Especially in a very. very very important very important period when we. have to be very much cooperative have to be very much cooperative have to be very much cooperative. So bringing all three. of our presentation sions in one line in one line is that. India had. a lot lots of all of opportunities.

India India, he still having a India, he still having opportunities. , but to . But, to, to, to go . But, to, to, to go for what we . But, to, to, to go for what we have to we have to be very much. target targeted in coming days

Targeted in coming days targeted in coming days in coming days. Otherwise, we will be again missing we will be again missing the bus, like. we have we have missed we have missed many buses in our we have missed many buses in our past. Thank you very much. Thank you very much.

Thank you so. Thank you, sir. you so much for this wonderful discussion this has really been very very enriching, and I really. equal what professor. at Shanghai shirt has to shirt has to say towards the end shirt has to say towards the end shirt has to say towards the end

, that this has been a great learning , that this has been a great learning experience for all of us. So now I would like to. prove propose the formal propose the formal water tanks on propose the formal water tanks on behalf of the employee center for the Study of Finance

And Economics. And I would like to thank. Professor Professor shied animate for shied animate for his. s points for for him points for for his inputs. chair of the session professor. chair of the session professor. will usher for joining us and for for joining us and for adding to the

For joining us and for adding to the richness of the celebration, and most of all kinds celebration. And most of all, thank you to profess. r now an alien party for lead an alien party for leading and an alien party for leading and moderating this discussion moderating this discussion and

The discussion CDs, I would the discussion CDs. I would also like to thank I would also like to thank I would also like to thank everybody who has watched us here everybody who has watched us, everybody who has watched us, he owed on zoom and also on Facebook.

Live and all those who Live and all those would be watching this later. er on our YouTube channel and lists er on our YouTube channel and listening to the program on our different podcasts, i can go different podcasts, i can see all of you for this. this,

And for your presence and for your presence, I hope that you all will kunin to that you all will kunin to our future. episode e of talking e of talking trade the state of foreign trade miss you all foreign trade wish you all a very good day and please stay safe. . Create article sections with HTML headings. If no transcript is available, summarize the video based on the video title

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