The Changing Dynamics of EU and Turkey Relations

In recent years, the relationship between the European Union and Turkey has seen significant changes. From potential sanctions dominating the agenda to the freezing of EU accession negotiations, there has been a shift in the nature of this relationship.

The Road to Strained Relations

Lack of leadership and strategic vision in the EU, combined with poisoned negotiations and a shift in Turkey’s agenda, led to a breakdown in the EU accession process. The EU ignored Turkey’s democratization path, allowing for democratic backsliding in the country.

Mutual Dependency and Common Interests

Despite the strained relationship, the EU and Turkey still have a mutual dependency and share common interests. From the customs union to the refugee deal, Turkey remains an important country for the EU.

Challenges and Opportunities

While there may be pressure from certain EU member states to address issues of democracy and rule of law in Turkey, the reality is that significant positive developments in these areas are not expected in the near future. However, economic issues, changing regional balances, and international events may lead to small, symbolic improvements in the relationship in the coming months.

The Path to Democratization

Despite the current challenges, there is still hope for democratization in Turkey, and the EU plays a role in keeping the door open for this potential future. While a reset in the relationship is necessary for a long-term strategy equation, for now, the focus is on maintaining open communication channels and issue-based cooperation.

Looking Towards the Future

It’s important to understand that the current state of EU and Turkey relations is not the new normal and cannot be sustained in the long term. Both parties need to work towards a more favorable time for a reset in the relationship and a discussion of a long-term strategy equation.

Overall, the EU’s understanding of the dynamics within Turkey has improved, and there is recognition that credible alternatives and potential for democratization exist within the country. Keeping the door open for Turkey’s future democratization is crucial for both parties.

While the current political dynamics may not support major changes in the near future, the EU’s vision and hope for a future democratic Turkey should drive the relationship forward until a more favorable time arrives.

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