The Outlook for 2018: A Discussion with J.P. Morgan’s Global Head of Research and Chief Economist

Introduction

In this discussion, Veronica Navarro welcomes Joyce Chang, global head of research at J.P. Morgan, and Bruce Kasman, the bank’s chief economist, to talk about the outlook for 2018.

Drivers of Economic Expansion

Bruce Kasman discusses the positive feedback loop taking place in the global economy and attributes the sustained and synchronized, strong global growth to the lifting of the long shadow cast by the global financial crisis.

Implications of the US Tax Plan

The discussion delves into the implications of the US tax plan on the 2018 economic outlook, including the potential impact on growth, the US budget deficit, and the Federal Reserve’s expected actions.

Outlook for China in 2018

Joyce Chang provides insights into the deliberate slowdown in China’s economic growth, focusing on the government’s efforts to address overcapacity, contain leverage, and address concerns about the property sector.

Risks in Europe and the Emerging Markets

The discussion touches on lingering risks in Europe, particularly regarding Brexit and the upcoming Italian elections, as well as the potential impacts of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) negotiations and the heavy election calendar across emerging markets.

Conclusion

The conversation wraps up with a focus on the potential shifts in focus from tax reform to trade issues and protectionist sentiment, as well as a call to action for viewers to learn more on J.P. Morgan’s website or social media channels.

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